Dave: Who will pay?

Over the weekend, Dave wrote an amazing pair of essays around the topic of who will pay for software:

I pay $1 to ride the subway downtown. It costs $300 to fly to NY and back (two hours in the air). A cab ride to the airport — $40. My monthly rent is in the thousands. Medical insurance about $10,000 per year. Everything costs money. So does software. Don’t fool yourself.

There’s an interesting strawman here: are people really not paying for software? I don’t know the statistics. I do think that a lot of what’s going on in the OS world is shifting the pay point to where the value happens. If you’re sitting on a commoditized operating system stack, in this model, the way to make money is to provide increasingly specialized and valuable services that ride the top of the stack.

That may be why I have yet to see anything that positions Windows Server 2003 as a file-and-print server, the most commoditized of any server implementation. Instead, the server sim-shipped with Visual Studio.NET 2003, the new edition of Microsoft’s development environment, and the scenarios tout the OS’s integrated application platform.

But back to Dave’s point: what happens when all the independents are squeezed out of the market because no one buys their stuff? Do we end up with a market with a bunch of journeymen developing shareware and freeware and then a few large software companies taking all the money? But if people aren’t buying the independents’ stuff, how long before they want to get the large companies’ stuff for free too? Scary thought if your skill set is software development…

Au revoir, Buffy, and thanks for the hits

On my way home from work, I received a phone call from my sister (who is three time zones to the east of me). She said, “Are you still getting a lot of referrals from Google for people looking for Trogdor?”

“A few,” I said, “but mostly it’s trailed off.”

“Well, you’re about to get a lot more,” she said. “They just mentioned him in the final Buffy episode.”

“Huh,” I replied.

Sure enough, a few hours later, in a D&D like game, one character tells the others they’re under attack … by Trogdor the Burninator. A few minutes later, the searchers start coming to my site, looking for trogdor buffy and buffy trogdor. Cool. Thanks, Joss. (Google finds this version of the final script for that search too.)

In addition to delivering some traffic to my site on its way out the door, I thought the last episode of the show made good on its series long message of female empowerment in a really big dramatic way. But then I’ve always liked the idea of teenage vampire slaying girls.

Best Lists of Bests lists

No, that’s not a typo. Bill Turner (of Brilliant Corners) unveiled the Lists of Bests site last week. Built on the Amazon Associates web services API, it presents interactive versions of various “best of” lists for movies, books, and music; allows you to use them as checklists and remembers which ones you’ve read, watched, or heard from list to list; and allows you to rate and build your own lists. There’s some natural synergy here with Blogcritics, and with anyone who ever felt like John Cusack’s character in High Fidelity (which is curiously not in either movie or book lists on the site that I can see; have to rectify that).

What Bill has done is to move something like Amazon’s ListMania out from under the Amazon umbrella and make it more discoverable.

Wish list for Lists of Bests:

  • Allow me to add new items to a list without them being already on the site, by Amazon number or ISBN
  • …hmm, that’s it, really.

I want to be able to add things like the KEXP Top 90.3 albums lists, books that have profoundly moved me, the best works of comic fiction of all time, and other stuff that’s not constrained by the works on the Best Of lists.

Doc: It’s not that we blog so much, it’s that you blog so little

Doc takes on some folks who argue (along with the impossible Andrew Orlowski) that blogs shouldn’t be indexed because they noise up Google too much:

Here’s a thought. What would happen if the archives of all the print publications out there were open to the Web, linkable by anybody, and crawlable by Google’s bots? Would the density of blogs “above the fold” (on page one) of Google searches go down while hard copy sources go up? I’ll betcha it would.

My point: Maybe this isn’t about “gaming” algorithms, but rather about a situation where one particular type of highly numerous journal has entirely exposed archives while less common (though perhaps on the whole more authoritative) others do not.

In other words, if you choose not to participate on the public, freely linkable, not for pay Web, don’t complain when others who do participate by the rules of the game are easier to find.

Keiretsu: Matrix, Paris, life changes, nostalgia

Quick sweep through the keiretsu this morning:

  • Shuman has been blogging like his hair was on fire, writing about summer movies, TV, and the iTunes Music Store. Today he tweaks the folks who expected deep meaning in The Matrix Reloaded: “The Matrix is not a terribly intelligent series. But that doesn’t matter in the least, nor should it detract from the movies. Just as die-hard Star Wars fans grew up to find all kinds of hidden meaning in what George Lucas admits were intended to be children’s movies, fans of The Matrix are remembering it as more than it was intended to be.”
  • George and Becky are back from Paris and George is blogging the experience, complete with nightly menu readings. So far, to recap, it’s been canard, escargot, foie gras, more escargot, lamb, pork, Chateau Forquet, and a Basque meal. I’ll have to find out how George talked Becky into the sewer tour. I’ve always been drawn to hidden places in cities like that, but I could never convince Lisa about the catacombs in Rome, much less sewers.
  • Craig has finished some major coursework but is taking the summer off to focus on writing. He says “The most recent book I had a hand in, Teach Yourself Web Services in 24 Hours, just hit the shelves.” Cool.
  • Esta brings back some serious found object nostalgia. In return: the smoked glass candy dish on the table in one grandmother’s house and the bobble-head dolls from Africa in the other grandmother’s curio cabinet.

Another milestone API

Dave Sifry at Technorati has posted an API for Technorati. Unlike the other milestone web APIs (Google, MetaWeblog, Amazon), it uses simple REST and parameters passed in URIs to get information such as the link cosmos for a URL, information about a given blog, or all the blogs that are linked to by a given blogger, all in clean XML.

Dumb airplanes, smart mobs, smarter blogs

Reading Howard Rheingold’s Smart Mobs in the airplane this morning between Seattle and Atlanta, it occurs to me that reading books—at least nonfiction books—has become a poorer experience since the advent of the Internet. Part of the power of Rheingold’s writing is its allusive nature: he collects dozens of points of reference and authorities across as many fields of study and assembles them into a pattern. But you’re always aware that there are depths beneath each name that illustrate different aspects of the story, such as wearable computing/cyborg Steve Mann’s collision with the new blunt instrument of airport security, who forcibly unwired him.

Reading such a work on an airplane, without an always-on Internet connection, is a poorer experience because it deprives the reader of the opportunity to check context, collect evidence that informs or opposes Rheingold’s point, and follow lines of inquiry that may digress from the path of the narrative. It also deprives one of access to Rheingold’s Smart Mobs blog, in which he continues collecting, pointing to, and commenting on evidence of the emerging collective, mobile intelligence evolving around us.

At least the laptop provides some measure of disconnected “backup brain”—I don’t know that I would have remembered that the Smart Mobs blog had its own domain rather than a home on Blogspot without NetNewsWire, my RSS aggregator of choice, which gave me the relevant URL when I command-clicked the Smart Mobs blog listing in my subscriptions list. NNW also aggregated my unread headlines as I was finishing my packing this morning, providing me with some supplemental reading material.

Maybe aggregators like NetNewsWire provide the best option for disconnected experiences and travel access to information. They’re certainly a better alternative than the previous iteration of the technology. When I was a software consultant and traveled occasionally, I relied on Lotus Notes and an extensive array of company databases that could be replicated for offline reference. Really, though, I only ever needed a small fraction of the material contained in any of those databases. Providing RSS feeds from blogs, where I can choose my subscription list based on individual providing the information, allows me to make choices based on voice and reduces some measure of information overload.

It’s not perfect, by itself. But next generation tools like Blogrolling.com (for exploring what the people to whom you subscribe are reading), Technorati (for finding out what people are saying about you), and even Weblogs.com (for sheer serendipity—I’ve had some really great random experiences by clicking on the links to blogs I knew nothing about, save that they had posted in the last three hours) help to expand the scope of my interest beyond the “echo cavern” of talking to myself by providing primitive reputation systems and filtering.

What’s the next step? How about a blog recommendation engine for people who don’t themselves blog, maybe based on search patterns or even Amazon purchase history? Google, in addition to recommending Usenet groups or DMoz directories, could recommend blogs that follow your interests, as expressed by your search terms. (This is the real power in Andrew Orlowski’s suggestion in the Register that blogs should have their own Google tab—not getting them out of people’s search results but making it possible to expand the UI into more expressive recommendations.

Of course, on the airplane I can’t do anything about this, for now.

The death of blogging has been exaggerated

Particularly the death of William Gibson’s blogging. Great post today about Shadowrun (“the admixture of cyberspace and, spare me, *elves*, has always been more than I could bear to think about”) and about buying his books, in which he makes a nod back to the discussion I had with him in February at the start of his book tour:

When people are downloading your pirated texts for free, it means you’re already pretty widely distributed. I view downloading as a sort of natural, organic tax on reputation.

Buying used copies is ecologically correct and to be encouraged. The list price on a hardcover PATTERN RECOGNITION in Canada is $40. After GST and PST, that would be closer to $50. When people have the courage to shyly tell me they’re waiting for the paperback, I’m all the more amazed and flattered at the number of people who buy me in hardcover. I didn’t start buying new fiction in hardcover until I was in my thirties and owned a house. And most of the paperbacks I bought, up to that point, I bought used.

Weblogs.com – Seeing the curve

When I looked a few minutes ago, Weblogs.com was only 50 updates away from breaking over 2400 weblogs in a three hour span. This would be the first time since the war was declared over that we might set a new high water mark (on April 7).

In related news, John Robb suggests that it may be time for Weblogs.com to do a “three-for-one split” (my words, not his) and start displaying only an hour of data at a time. If this happens, of course I’ll restate the traffic curves that we’ve been seeing—but it will only be an average approximation, since there’s no archive of data to tell us what the actual hourly high water mark is.

The interesting part is why the need to move. Take a look at the curve below (last updated 4/7):

linear plot of weblogs.com high water mark growth, 6 may

See the uptick? It could be caused by one of two things:

  • The war and corporate earnings season together caused an upswing in blog posting traffic that may not be repeated
  • We could be on the cusp of an exponential explosion in weblog activity, driven by the virtuous cycle of blogging: publish – subscribe – read – comment – publish.

The above graphic was a linear plot of the traffic to date. Take a look at this log-normal plot, which maps the high water marks on an exponentially increasing scale:

linear plot of weblogs.com high water mark growth, 6 may

This suggests that the hockey-stick shape of the first graph is no accident; there really are some reinforcing loops driving the growth of the blogosphere. If that’s the case, yeah, it may be time to move to displaying a shorter time increment on Weblogs.com…

Last words from William Gibson?

One last post from Gibson at the end of his book tour in Dublin, pondering hyper-branding, the oddity of soba noodles near the Liffey, and…

… winding up where I always eventually do if I’m jetlagged in Dublin: peering throughy the fence at the tiny, deeply strange Huguenot Cemetary on Merrion Row, c. 1693. Grave-markers like Shaker tables carved from stone. Bluebells growing up through boxwood. Litter-spillage from the Merrion Row bus-stop: tall tinnies of Guiness and Linden Village Strong Cider. Deja-vu of soul-delay.

Deja.

Vu.

Man, I’m going to miss hearing new words from that voice every day. But the next novel will be worth it.

William Gibson, blogger no more

Sez here (interview by Karlin Lillington, to be on Wired this afternoon sometime) that William Gibson is giving up blogging, as he fears it will damage his creative process for his next novel. While I grieve his loss as a blogger, I commend his motives. Great quotes:

Somehow the ecology of writing novels wouldn’t be able to exist if I’m in daily contact. The watched pot never boils… Writing novels is pretty solitary, and blogging is very social.…If I were really a novelist of ideas in the way some novelists are, it might well work [to keep blogging] – if I needed to work through political and philosophical ideas. But that’s not how I think I work.…If I expose things that interest or obsess me as I go along, there’d be no need to write the book. The sinews of narrative would never grow. So, I think I’m going to say goodbye to whoever’s been following it. Though it’s very tempting not to stop. Stop me now!

I think we’ve all been there. I hope that blogging—and meeting his fans and reading their comments about his work—has given him some good grist for the next one.

UserLand digs in on Manila

Ever since Dave went to Harvard, there’s been a flurry of activity around Manila, UserLands’s other blogging product (after Radio), which happens to be the back end of this weblog as well. As a long time customer (and only recently a paying one!) it’s nice to see UserLand paying attention to its other platform.

You can follow their progress on Manila and on Radio on a new website that tracks progress on UserLand’s products from all its employees.